The absolute price of any ETF tells you little. The relationship between two ETFs tells you the regime: risk-on or risk-off, growth or defense, reflation or fear. This desk maps the most liquid fund per sector — US and worldwide — against 15 intermarket ratios that professional traders use to spot rotation before it completes.
Rule: ≥2 of the 4 master gauges must be bullish before adding any thematic exposure. Theme ETFs amplify the regime — last to add, first to cut.
15 intermarket ratios + 9 theme signals vs. SMA20 & SMA50. Weighted scoring — masters ×3, yen carry ×2.5, credit/breadth ×2, directional ×1.5, rotational ×1, phase signals ×0.5. Strong signals count double. Theme row shows which categories have a green light right now.
Top 8 bull + top 8 bear shown · click button below to see all
Click to expand the full signal breakdown
Score each lens +1/−1 by its 50-day MA slope. Net the score across lenses.
Theme rule: themes are the last to add and first to cut. Defense (ITA) is the only theme that can diverge from the broad regime — it tracks geopolitics, not just risk appetite.
Get ≥2 of 4 master gauges bullish. That's the green light for ANY risk. Without it — no theme ETFs, no small caps, no high-beta. The live signal engine scores this for you automatically.
SMH/SPY green → add AIQ, QTUM, BOTZ, CHAT. ITA/SPY green → add ITA, XAR, SHLD. ARKK/SPY green → add speculative sleeve (NASA, ARKG). Each flipping red = cut that category first.
Theme ETFs are high-beta and carry concentration risk. Max 5–10% per theme. Treat the SMA20 cross as a stop trigger — if the ratio breaks below SMA20, cut the position. Never average down into a red signal.
ARKK, NASA, UFO, QTUM, ARKG can fall 50–80% in a bear market. They amplify the regime — never hold through a red-light signal.
GLD ~$155.1B vs. UFO ~$1.2B. Thin theme funds can gap on news. Use limit orders; verify spreads before sizing.
ITA/XAR/SHLD can rise in risk-off if geopolitical tensions are the driver. All other themes track the broad risk cycle.
ARKK's portfolio changes over time (active). It remains the best liquid proxy for speculative risk appetite but subject to Cathie Wood's decisions.
Quantum/space/nuclear ETFs can stay elevated on narrative alone. The ratio signal is your reality check — if it's rolling over, the narrative is fading.
Educational framework only. All signals are lagging, based on closing prices, and should be layered on top of your own risk management and position sizing rules.
Green = add exposure · Red = cut first · Powered by SMH/SPY, ITA/SPY, ARKK/SPY ratios
US sectors, global ETFs, macro asset classes — plus trending thematic industries (defense, space, quantum, AI, nuclear and more) that cut across GICS sectors.
| Ticker | Fund | Category | Tracks | Approx AUM | Why it's the one |
|---|
AUM approximate (early–mid 2026). Trending themes are not GICS sectors — higher-beta, rotate faster. Verify before sizing.
The last three ratios map themes onto the same framework: SMH/SPY (tech-AI), ITA/SPY (defense), ARKK/SPY (speculative).
Each ETF is measured as ETF / SPY ratio — then ranked by how far that ratio sits above its own 20-day SMA. This removes the market tide and shows which ETF is genuinely outperforming. Strong Bull = ratio above both SMA20 and SMA50.
Scans every stock in the universe (SMA20/50 structure, 20-day relative strength vs own sector, sector vs SPY, volume, ATR) and concludes: which side to trade, which sectors, which names, at what level, with what size.